'Go for a base cover of Rs 10 lakh and then buy a super top-up of Rs 90 lakh.'
Benchmark equity indices Sensex and Nifty ticked higher for the ninth straight session on Thursday, buoyed by fag-end buying in banking, financial and realty stocks amid encouraging domestic retail inflation data. Weak trends in IT counters and fall in the overnight US equity markets triggered by fresh concerns over recession, however, put a check on market's uptrend. In a largely subdued session, the 30-share BSE Sensex went up marginally by 38.23 points or 0.06 per cent to settle at 60,431.
The retail industry witnessed robust top-line growth for the greater part of the previous financial year, but demand has started to show signs of fatigue seen in the January-March quarter (fourth quarter, or Q4) of 2022-23 (FY23), especially in the apparel and innerwear segments. Jewellery, however, has managed to hold on to demand in the quarter. "In the discretionary space, demand moderation in urban markets is expected to impact the quick-service restaurant and apparel categories the most, while paint, luggage, and jewellery should see resilient growth," Systematic Institutional Equities observed in its preview of the sector.
The industry has stepped up its demand for a rate cut
The cost of food has constantly been on the rise.
Unprecedented rains and floods in the northern region in the past few days have not only caused extensive damage to lives and property but have also impacted business and commercial establishments. Vegetable prices have gone through the roof in the national capital and many other parts of the country since rains started pouring earlier this month. Traders say vegetable prices would come down only after roads open and skies clear, even as water in the fields will take time to recede.
Domestic rating agency ICRA on Monday said Indian companies are likely to clock 7-8 per cent revenue growth during the March quarter of the current fiscal year, led by revival in rural demand and uptick in government spending. ICRA expects the private capital expenditure (capex) cycle to remain measured in view of the uncertainties around geopolitical developments and relatively subdued outlook on merchandise exports from India.
RBI targets to keep inflation at 4 per cent, (+/- 2 per cent), and its rise beyond this comfort zone will put pressure on the central bank to hike rates.
Inflation in 'fuel and power' basket rose sharply to 11.22 per cent in May from 7.85 per cent in April as prices of domestic fuel increased in line with rising global crude oil rates.
A monsoon deficit is likely to affect the agriculture output, which could have an impact on the food inflation
However, it may still not change its stance on the policy rate as inflationary pressures are coming from high commodity prices.
Among the Sensex firms, ITC, Kotak Mahindra Bank, ICICI Bank, Nestle, Axis Bank, IndusInd Bank, UltraTech Cement, Bajaj Finance, Maruti and HDFC Bank were the major laggards.
The Centre on Friday said it will sell 'Bharat Rice' in the retail market at Rs 29 per kg from next week to give relief to the common man and has also directed traders to disclose rice/paddy stock, as part of its efforts to control prices that have risen by around 15 per cent in the last one year. In a press conference, Union Food Secretary Sanjeev Chopra exuded confidence that these two measures along with the various restrictions of exports will help in cooling down the prices. Seeking to dispel market rumours, he categorically said the government has no plans to lift restrictions on rice exports any time soon.
Days after the US Fed raised the interest rate, the RBI may go in for its third consecutive policy rate hike by at least 35 basis points to check high retail inflation, experts said. The central bank has already announced to gradually withdraw its accommodative monetary policy stance. The Reserve Bank of India's rate-setting panel -- the Monetary Policy Committee -- will meet for three days from August 3 to deliberate on the prevailing economic situation and announce its bi-monthly review on Friday.
Indices across Indian equity markets have edged towards new record highs before undergoing a small correction in the past few sessions. The National Stock Exchange Nifty has gained 20 per cent in the past year; mid-caps (up 33 per cent), small-caps (up 31 per cent), and micro-caps (up 44 per cent) have done better. Several factors have precipitated this rally.
S&P Global Ratings on Monday retained India's GDP growth forecast at 6 per cent saying it will be the fastest growing economy among Asia Pacific nations. The GDP growth forecast for the current and the next fiscal has been kept unchanged from the forecast made in March partly on account of domestic resilience. "We see the fastest growth at about 6 per cent in India, Vietnam, and the Philippines, S&P Global Ratings said in its quarterly economic update for Asia-Pacific.
'Investors should continue with their SIPs, especially during market corrections.' 'For those looking to start new SIPs, beginning with large-cap funds is a prudent strategy, followed by flexi-cap and value-oriented approaches.'
The Centre on Thursday began the first phase of retail sales of onion at a subsidised rate of Rs 35 per kg to provide relief to Delhi-NCR and Mumbai consumers from rising prices of the kitchen staple. NCCF and NAFED, which are maintaining a buffer stock of 4.7 lakh tonne onion on behalf of the government, will undertake the retail sale through their own stores and mobile vans. Onion will be sold at 38 retail points in Delhi-NCR and Parel and Malad in Mumbai.
'Retail investors have to stick to their asset allocation plans and continuously do portfolio reviews.'
On overall basis, the inflation in the food segment increased to 4.42 per cent in November as compared to 1.9 per cent in the preceding month.
A three-year validity of an inflation target is, perhaps, more reasonable and practicable.
RICS, the UK-based self-regulatory body for qualification and standards in land, property and construction, said the upward revision in repo rate in October by RBI is likely to increase pressure on real estate developers.
When Gensol Engineering made its public market debut through a small and medium enterprises (SME) initial public offering (IPO) in September 2019, its promoters held a commanding 96 per cent stake. Now, that figure has shrunk to a "negligible" fraction.
'My advice: Don't mark your portfolio to market every day. Focus on survival.'
The manufacturing sector, which accounts for over 75 per cent of the index, declined by 2.4 per cent against a growth of 4.1 per cent in December 2014.
It noted that the economy underwent a transition -- possibly, structural and permanent -- from high to low inflation in the last three years.
The wholesale price inflation was negative for 10 weeks in a row, but retail prices of items consumed by people in villages rose at the rate of nearly 13 per cent in the month of July.
Hit by inflation, higher input costs and pricing measures, fast-moving consumer goods companies are expected to see a contraction in their gross margin and a modest-to-flat operating profit in the October-December quarter. Several FMCG makers are likely to log a low single-digit rise in their revenue, returning to the cycle of value-driven growth.
Analysts are divided on their retail price inflation forecast, with some saying the first quarter numbers will overshoot the RBI target by as much as 60 bps while others are softer in their estimate. Consumer price inflation retreated from its 15-month peak of 7.4 per cent in July to 6.8 per cent in August, much lower than the market expectations, despite vegetable prices remaining elevated at 26.1 per cent. Food inflation eased to 9.9 per cent from 11.5 per cent, led by some cooling of inflation in vegetables, cereals, pulses and milk.
India has built up buffers against cyclical difficulties and has ample foreign exchange reserves to withstand pressure on credit worthiness, S&P Global Ratings said on Thursday. Speaking at the India Credit Spotlight 2022 webinar, S&P Sovereign & International Public Finance Ratings director Andrew Wood said the country has a strong external balance sheet and limited external debt, making debt servicing not so expensive. "The country has built up buffers against cyclical difficulties like those, which we are experiencing right now," Wood said.
The biggest risk to India's growth outlook is an escalation of geopolitical tensions, especially if these tensions spread to the Asian region, RBI Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) member Jayanth R Varma said on Wednesday. Varma, in an interview to PTI, said that inflation and inflationary expectations appear to be moderating and high inflation will certainly not become the 'norm' in the country. He is cautiously optimistic about the Indian economy as after the pandemic abated, consumption demand has begun to recover though the recovery is uneven across sectors and industries.
Dealers said the discounts this March are higher than the same month in the previous year.
In November, wholesale prices, India's main inflation measure, rose 7.52 percent, their fastest pace in 14 months.
From the Sensex basket, Tata Motors, State Bank of India, Tata Steel, Power Grid, NTPC, Bajaj Finserv, Bajaj Finance and Asian Paints were the major laggards.
Benchmark equity indices Sensex and Nifty reversed their early gains to close lower on Wednesday due to selling in oil & gas, banking and IT stocks amid weak trends in European markets. The 30-share BSE Sensex declined by 372.46 points or 0.69 per cent to close at 53,514.15, extending its falling streak to a third day. The index opened higher and touched the day's high of 54,211.22 amid gains in Asian markets.
Mixed earnings and not so encouraging macroeconomic data dented sentiment, Ajit Mishra, VP - Research, Religare Broking Ltd said. In twin blows to Indian economic revival, higher food prices drove retail inflation to a five-month high of 7.4 per cent, while factory output fell for the first time in 18 months. The second consecutive month of rise in consumer price index (CPI)-based inflation will add to the pressure on the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to again raise interest rates to tame high prices. In the broader market, BSE Midcap declined 0.73 per cent while smallcap dropped 0.45 per cent.
Retail sales of overall vehicles in India grew by 15.28 per cent to 2,11,20,441 units in 2022 led by record sales of passenger vehicles and tractors, Federation of Automobile Dealers Associations (FADA) said on Thursday. In 2021, total retail sales of vehicles in India were at 1,83,21,760 units, FADA said in a statement. Two-wheelers retail sales stood at 1,53,88,062 units last year, a growth of 13.37 per cent from 2021 when sales stood at 1,35,73,682 units.
Recent documents by NITI Aayog and periodic labour force surveys on employment show that the importance of agriculture is rising in the Indian economy.
India Ratings on Thursday said that any broad-based or strong recovery in corporate capital expenditure was unlikely in the upcoming financial year 2026 (FY26) due to uncertainty of domestic and external demand. The uncertainty is adversely affecting the overall corporate sector capex. Interest rates on credit are not the primary deterrent to decisions about capital expenditure, said Soumyajit Niyogi, director, core analytical group, Ind-Ra, in a webinar on the credit market outlook.
Senior citizens and others depending upon income from bank fixed deposit (FD) schemes will be at the receiving end with the retail inflation exceeding the interest rates. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in its latest monetary policy review has projected retail inflation at 5.3 per cent for the current financial year. Last week, the RBI said that the Consumer Price Index (CPI)-based inflation is now projected to be at 5.3 per cent for 2021-22 with risks evenly balanced.
